Iranian kidnappings, the new Gulf of Tonkin?
William Clark presciently addressed reasons for the Bush administrations drive to invade Iraq in 2002. He hypothesised the preservation of the petrodollar as the monopoly oil reserve currency as the real (under-reported) reason to invade Iraq (since Saddam in Nov 2000 changed to selling his oil in Euros). Clark recently released a new article that expanded his petrocurrency monopoly hypothesis on Iran.
In short, Iran is about to bring online the Kish island oil bourse, an online exchange for oil, that can be purchased in U.S. dollars, Euros, or Iranian rials. While he notes this will not initially impact the status of the USD as the petrocurrency (and therefore required to be held in cash reserves across the world, stabilising the USD despite massive trade deficits), over time it, together with the possibility of Russia transacting oil sales in Euros, will lead to a reduction in the dollars strength, with greenbacks returning to the U.S federal reserve.
His hypothesis is a well thought one, it notes the attempts by the Bush/Cheney administration to apply financial sanctions against Iran, and helps explain the bellicose actions of the administration towards Iran. Kidnapping Iranian embassy staff is a direct mirror of the Iranian students take over of the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979-80. It's an action designed to provoke more conflict with Iran. With a greater conflict, the hope is to force through a U.N. security council resolution (or provide sufficient justification echoed in the corporate media for a unilateral decision) that would impose financial ("smart") sanctions against Iran, critically focused on preventing it's banking sector transacting in Euros.
With the U.S. intelligence services so rightly chastised for their failures on WMD assessment we can be reasonably sure their assessment of Iran's capabilities is accurate and well reported. They have noted the problems Iran has had in developing nuclear reactors - no real threat currently exists. But the threat to the U.S. economy by the return of steadily weakening U.S. dollars is a real danger that requires a conflict to 1) justify the incredible military costs 2) impose financial sanctions 3) paint Democrats as unpatriotic for not supporting an escalation.